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Who is going to win the World Series in 2012?


Case: Bangers R You vs. BFD


Case #801 – Bangers R You vs. BFD
No. of Teams = 16
Dispute = A veto is being run on the following trade, 7-3 (8 votes are needed to veto a trade, neither party involved in the trade voted). Result, trade went through.

BFD receives: Jamie Shields, Adam Jones, Rickie Weeks
Banger R You receives: Carlos Zambrano, Jeff Francoeur, Ryan Sweeney, Oliver Perez, Justin Masterson.

A three for five deal is tough. There are a lot of moving parts. There are many factors that need to be weighed especially in a 16-team league where FA is scarce. At first glance, BFD got the better end of the deal, receiving less injury prone and question-mark players. At the beginning of the season players who are more likely to play the entire season are a lot more valuable, thus would rather have Shields, Jones and Weeks… all players are more likely to go through an entire season (baring any unforeseen injuries, which could happen to any of the nine players involved) than the all five of the players traded to Banger R You. However, Zambrano could have a season like 2006, which was better than either of Shields past two seasons, thus rendering them fairly close in trade value. I’ll give Shields a one round draft slot value better than Zambrano, which can be picked up by Masterson stats/draft position. Now onto Jones and Week for Sweeney, Francoeur and Perez. There is huge upside in Francoeur and fairly good upside in Sweeney. Sweeney/Perez knock out Weeks and then you have Jones for Francoeur.

While today I will give the edge to BFD, Banger R You is taking some risk that can definitely pay off.  There are other factors such positions that need to be filled and categories that need to be evened out, which render this trade virtually even.  In other words, there is no real reason to veto this trade, even though BFD got the slight edge. The result of this trade at the end of the season could easily be slanted towards either team. There is clearly no collusion involved and the trade is not lopsided. Therefore, since the outcome could easily benefit either team evenly, the judgment rendered is fair trade.


Player Analysis:
J. Shields (SP) – solid, tier two pitcher
Adam Jones (OF) – promising prospect
Weeks (2B) - below average infielder


Zambrano (SP) – tier three pitcher due to injury prone and decling stats
Francoeur (OF) – big question-mark player, could be a tier two OF or could be a FA
Sweeney (OF) – second tier prospect
Perez (SP) – declining, “out of shape pitcher,” tier four
Masterson (OF) – promising prospect

Inside the States:
Shields (SP) – 12 W, 160 Ks, 3.56era, 1.15whip (2 years solid) – est. Round 9
Jones (OF) – 61r, 9hr, 57rbi, 10sb .270 ave. (prospect) – est. Round 17
Weeks (2B) – 89r, 14hr, 46rbi, 19sb, .234 ave (2 year solid) – est. Round 14

Zambrano (SP) – 12 W, 130 K, 3.91 era, 1.29 whip (injury prone, declining stats) – est. Round 10
Francoeur (OF) – 70r, 11hr, 71rbi, .239ave (huge upside based on past stats) – est. Round 20
Sweeney (OF) – limited ’08 play. Prospect - FA
Perez (SP) – 10w, 180 Ks, 4.22 era, 1.40 whip (decline from ’07, “out of shape”) - FA
Masterson (SP)  - 6w, 3.16 era, 1.22 whip, 68 k (prospect) - FA